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The Declinists Are Wrong Again
Robert J. Lieber
Perspectives Papers No. 47, July 30, 2008
It is premature to write the epitaph for American power and leadership. In contrast to popular argumentation, America continues to maintain a position of relative predominance, and despite an increasing diffusion of power, no single country has emerged as a plausible counterpart or peer competitor. Apart from the long-term possibility of China, none is likely to do so. Similarly, without minimizing the impact of domestic problems, it would be wise not to overstate the likelihood of American economic decline. Neither the rise of important regional powers, nor competition in a globalized world economy, nor imperial overstretch, nor domestic weakness are likely to have the transformative effects that new "declinists" postulate.
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Sarkozy's Presidency
Tsilla Hershco
Perspectives Papers No. 46, June 22, 2008
On the eve of Nicholas Sarkozy's first state visit to Israel and one year into his presidency, it can be asked: Does Sarkozy's Presidency mark a new era in Franco-Israeli relations? The analysis below suggests that, despite a tightening of French-Israel bilateral and strategic relations under Sarkozy and an improvement in both ambiance and tone, substantial political disagreements remain between the two countries. This is especially true in four areas: Israeli-Palestinian issues, the crisis in Lebanon, Sarkozy's "Arab policy" and Iran's nuclear drive.
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The Failure of the Oslo Process:
Inherently Flawed or Flawed Implementation?
Jonathan Rynhold
Perspectives Papers No. 45, June 16, 2008
Liberals argued that the Oslo process collapsed because it was not implemented properly; especially the failure to implement economic integration and build mutual trust. In contrast, from a Realist perspective, it is argued below that the Oslo process was flawed from the outset. Israel and the Palestinians were ripe for negotiations but not for conflict resolution because the parties remained too far apart on core issues. No amount of trust could overcome this problem. Attempts at integration actually made matters worse by increasing friction. The key to conflict management is not integration but physical and political separation.
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UNRWA: Barrier to Peace
Jonathan Spyer
Perspectives Papers No. 44, May 27, 2008
Executive Summary: The United Nations Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) was created under the jurisdiction of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), with the unique responsibility of solely aiding the Palestinians. Due to this special status, the UNRWA perpetuates, rather than resolves, the Palestinian refugee issue, and therefore serves as a major obstacle toward resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Like no other UN body, UNRWA's definition of refugees includes not only the refugees themselves, but also their descendents. Moreover, refugees keep their status even if they have gained citizenship. UNRWA employs teachers affiliated with Hamas and allows the dissemination of Hamas messages in its schools. The Hamas coup in Gaza of July 2007 has resulted in a Hamas takeover of UNRWA facilities there. Therefore, UNRWA's activities require urgent action. The Agency should be dissolved and its services transferred to more appropriate administering organizations.
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A Hopeful Iraq: Two Dangers Averted
Max Singer
Perspectives Papers No. 43, May 21, 2008
Executive Summary: Opponents of the war in Iraq have long warned that the removal of Saddam Hussein would have two extremely negative consequences: that Iraqi Shiites would impose a radical religious regime on the country, and that Iran would effectively come to control the country. However, a dispassionate examination of the facts on the ground reveals that neither of these horrors has come to be. While the struggle is not yet over and these dangers exist, the likelihood of Iraq becoming radically religious or Iranian-dominated seems considerably lower than it did in 2003.
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Israel at 60 Remains a Success Story
Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Papers No. 42, May 11, 2008
Israel was successful in parrying several military challenges intent on destroying the Jewish state. Over time the power differential between Israel and its regional foes has grown, enhancing Israel's capacity to deal successfully with security problems. While Israel has become stronger, its enemies, with the exception of Iran, have become weaker. Moreover, the Jewish state is widely recognized as an entrenched reality even by Arab and Muslim states.
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Irans Deceptive Commercial Practices
Emanuele Ottolenghi
Perspectives Papers No. 41, April 15, 2008
Executive Summary: Sanctions against Iran focus on nuclear and ballistic missile technology, drawing a distinction between legitimate and illegitimate trade. But a closer look at Irans commercial practices proves that Iran is systematically abusing its access to Western technology. Technology it is acquiring for civilian projects or for legitimate policing activities is being diverted in order to bolster Irans Revolutionary Guard Corps and its overwhelming economic role in Iran; and also for the development of Iran's clandestine nuclear activities. In short, Western technology sold to Iran is being utilized in ways that Iran's Western suppliers have never dreamed of, even in their worst nightmares. The current reality is that for a healthy profit and without moral compunctions, Western companies are legally selling Iran tools to repress its own citizens, to bully its neighbors, and to destabilize the entire region.
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Shelve the Shelf Agreement
David M. Weinberg
Perspectives Papers No. 40, March 26, 2008
Executive Summary: The newfangled "shelf agreement" concept which now serves as the basis for negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians is unworkable. The concept has no foundation in negotiation theory, especially in the history of Arab-Israeli negotiations. It incautiously assumes best case scenarios regarding the Palestinians which have no basis in reality; when in fact a durable "final status" agreement must anticipate all worst case scenarios. Furthermore, the historical record shows that even if Israel and the PA were to agree on a grand "endgame agreement," the Palestinians would proceed to bargain with Israel for additional concessions as the price of implementation. Moreover, Israel inevitably would be forced to forgive the Palestinians on the needed governmental and security reforms even as the PA unilaterally proclaims statehood. Finally, the two-state paradigm on which the "shelf agreement" concept rests seems an anachronism in the wake of the Islamic takeover of Gaza. Thus, shelf agreement theory is strategically illogical and tactically ill-considered. A performance-based peace process remains the only sustainable model towards a durable final settlement.
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France, the European Union and the Middle East in the Sarkozy Era
Tsilla Hershco
Perspectives Paper No. 39, February 27, 2008
President Nicolas Sarkozy, since his accession in May 2007, attracts considerable attention and media coverage, not only for his captivating private life, but also due to his numerous internal reform initiatives and his intensive diplomatic agenda on the international scene. Sarkozy's policy represents traditional French aspirations to play a prominent role in the international arena in general and in the Middle East in particular. Thus, it embraces past objectives and perceptions, while concurrently adopting new energetic methods and activism adapted to Sarkozy's style and worldwide vision. Sarkozy aims to increase France's influence and promote French interests in the Middle East, by strengthening the European Unions global role and by advancing initiatives such as the Common European Foreign and Defense Policy (CFDP) and the Mediterranean Union (MU). Sarkozy's vision for France, the EU and the ME is meeting considerable challenges and obstacles not insurmountable as long as realism and prudence prevail.
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Gaza: Risks and Opportunities
Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Paper No. 38, February 13, 2008
The recent breach by Hamas of the Egyptian-Gaza border has short and long term implications. In the short term, the event strengthened Hamas' standing in Gaza and increased the current security challenges to Israel, as terrorists and arms crossed the porous border. As rockets continue to fall on Israeli cities near Gaza, the Israeli public demands action by the government. Egypt is forced to play a role in the new situation, and finds itself caught in a dilemma showing solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza while simultaneously preventing Hamas' influence in internal Egyptian politics. This event could become the catalyst of a reintroduction of Arab states taking responsibility on the Palestinian issue.
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How Stable is Pakistan?
Jonathan Paris
Perspectives Paper No. 37, February 4, 2008
Is Pakistan slowly falling apart at the seams? The assassination of Benazir Bhutto has put Pakistan front and center as an unstable state which may fail or fragment. The questionable ability of President Musharraf to maintain his power, the unpredictability of the election outcome and process, and the untested judgment of the new Army Chief of Staff, Ashfaq Kayani, makes Pakistan’s future exceedingly difficult to predict. The nuclear dimension, in addition to anecdotal evidence that global jihadi volunteers are shifting from Iraq to the Northwest border sanctuaries of Pakistan, add a disconcerting dimension. A key question is the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. The US is struggling between support for the freedom agenda and maintaining the post-9/11 alliance with President Musharraf and the Pakistani Army against the increasingly menacing Taliban. Faced with few other options, the US is likely to continue to support the Army and to hope that Musharraf can somehow engineer a soft landing. The best one can hope for is that Pakistan will muddle through as it has done in past crises, with continuing oscillations between military and civilian rule.
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The Mideast Axis of Destabilization
Ely Karmon
Perspectives Paper No. 36, December 26, 2007
The Iran-Syria-Hizballah-Hamas alliance has acted during the last 15 years as an axis of destabilization” in the Middle East, achieving major strategic victories at the expense of moderate Arab states, and US, European, and Israeli interests.
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U.S. Kosovo Policy Is Bad for Israel
James Jatras and Serge Trifkovic
Perspectives Papers No. 35, November 6, 2007
Strong American support for the independence of Kosovo is detrimental to Israeli interests. The US position is based on the view that a solution to long-standing conflict can and should be imposed on the parties by outside powers. In addition, the new state's creation seeks to award part of a nation�s territory to a violent ethno-religious minority; futilely hopes to curry favor with the Islamic world through appeasement; effectively gives a fresh impetus to the ongoing growth of Islamic influence in Europe; and denies the fact that the putative state's leaders are tainted by terrorism, criminality, and well-documented links with global jihad. Most importantly, it betrays a cynically postmodern contempt for all claims based on the historical rights and spiritual significance of a land to a nation.
It is in Israel's interest to reiterate its already-stated position that any solution to Kosovo should be based on the agreement of both parties in dispute. In addition, the Israeli government should declare that it will not extend recognition to any self-proclaimed "state" unless its independence is approved by the UN Security Council.
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The Threat of al Qaeda and its Allies in Lebanon
Shaul Shay
Perspectives Paper No. 34, September 19, 2007
Not only do radical Shi'ites threaten the stability of the fragile Lebanese political system, but al Qaeda-backed Sunnis pose a significant threat. The recent fighting between the Lebanese army and the al Qaeda-affiliated Fatah al Islam organization in Nahr al Bared in north Lebanon, and the attacks against UNIFIL forces in south Lebanon, reflect the challenges of radical jihadi Sunni Islam on the stability of the country and the region. The Lebanese government's ability to face the challenge of al Qaeda appears limited, with the degree of its success largely dependant on international support and the consent of local power brokers such as Hizballah and the Palestinians.
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The False "Crisis" in Military Recruitment: An IDF Red Herring
By Stuart A. Cohen
Perspectives Paper No. 33, July 23, 2007
According to figures released last week by the IDF, 25 percent of Israeli male youth are shirking military duty. However, the statistics simply do not support this: Israeli enlistment remains at extraordinarily high levels. Why then the hysteria? The IDF is cynically seeking to legitimize its budget demands by creating the aura of crisis.
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Bush Cannot Succeed in the Holy Land
By Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Paper No. 32, July 23, 2007
US President George Bush's new plan for Middle East peace is inadequate. The plan rests on several faulty assumptions including the belief that outside influences can change Palestinian society, economic assistance will alleviate political problems, Abu Mazen is the leader to bring about change, the Palestinians will be "good" neighbors towards Israel, and Fatah can bring Hamas back under its control. However, the realities of Palestinian society reflect a different picture. Israel's best bet is to wait for a better opportunity to attain stability.
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Perspectives Paper No. 31, July 2, 2007
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Folly and Shame: Personal Reflections on a Visit to Beleaguered Sderot
By David M. Weinberg
Perspectives Paper No.30, June 24, 2007
With the Hamas now fully in control of Gaza, freely running guns and missiles through the Egyptian border (negating the need for tunnels), the missile barrages on southern Israel can be expected to increase. Close to six months of Israeli "restraint" in the face of these attacks is both strategic folly of the highest order and a deep source of shame.
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The French Presidential Elections of May 2007: Implications for French-Israeli Relations
By Tsilla Hershco
Perspectives Paper No. 29, May 13, 2007
Executive Summary: The election this week of Nicolas Sarkozy as President of France is unlikely to lead to a substantial shift in French policy towards Israel, although the tone of French-Israeli relations can be expected to improve. Even the most favorable French administration will continue to take into account France's traditional ties with the Arab world, France's significant Muslim population, and public opinion in France, which is not at all favorable to Israel.
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The Iran-Hamas Alliance: Threat and Folly
By Hillel Frisch
Perspectives Paper No. 28
Since the US invasion of Iraq, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's Iran has taken on the behavior of a regional hegemon. Indeed, Ahmadinejad speaks and acts as if he is the new leader of the Third World. Iran is setting itself up as the leader of a Mideast "axis of evil" with radical proxies and allies. An important aspect of the new Iranian "hegemonic" reach is Teheran's growing alliance with Hamas. The marriage between the two dates back to January 2006, when both Iran and the Palestinian Authority (PA) held elections. Under Ahmadinejad, Iran has become an active revisionist state guided by radical religious conviction, while Hamas has captured almost complete control of the PA. This paper analyzes the implications of a radical religious coalition between Iran and Hamas.
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The Iranian Dilemma: Preventing Iran from Acquiring Nuclear Capabilities
By Dr. Mordechai Kedar
Perspectives Paper No. 27
 Many realize that the most important task confronting the international community today is the prevention of Iran�s nuclearization. It is clear that a radical religious regime�convinced that all of its actions and decisions are directed by Allah, that its leaders are infallible, and that all others are heretics who have no right to interfere with the only real believers�must not be allowed to obtain nuclear weapons. Opinions are divided, however, on the question of how to stop Iran without causing too much damage to other countries, from the Gulf States to Israel, from the Arab world to the USA.
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The Saudi Initiative: A Starting Point for an Israeli-Saudi Dialogue?
By Prof. Alexander Bligh
Perspectives Paper No. 26
 The recently revived Saudi initiative is premised on terms permanently unacceptable to Israel. Nevertheless, given current realities, Israel should not reject the initiative out of hand. Israel should take advantage of the initiative in order to transform it into a real opening for direct yet secret negotiations with Saudi Arabia.
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The Illusion of "Peace in Exchange for Territories"
By Dr. Mordechai Kedar
Perspectives Paper No. 25
 For years, especially since the 1991 Madrid Peace Conference, Arab leaders have repeated the mantra that peace with Israel hinges upon a withdrawal to the pre-1967 border. Similar rhetoric followed with the Arab Summit's March 2002 decision to endorse the "Saudi peace initiative," suggesting that the Arab world's problem with Israel stems from "occupation" of the West Bank, Gaza and Jerusalem. This paper demonstrates the error of this assertion. The Arab demand for a return of all Palestinian refugees to pre-1967 Israel remains at the core of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and this demand disguises Arab intentions to destroy Israel.
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The Palestinians and the Second Lebanese War
By Dr. Hillel Frisch
Perspectives Paper No. 24
 Many commentators have suggested that Israel's questionable military performance inthe second Lebanese war and the resulting increase in Hizballah's power and prestigehave impacted negatively on Israel's ability to deal with the Palestinians. This articledemonstrates the error in this view and discusses the negligible effect of the war inLebanon on Israel's security policy regarding the Palestinians.The recent war revealed that the tendency to see the conflict in broader terms, such asa clash of civilizations, is very much exaggerated. Essentially, Israel's adversaries actindependently, resulting in bilateral conflicts. This was exemplified by thePalestinian's quiescence while the Hizballah waged war in Lebanon and vice versa.While it is difficult for Israel to fight simultaneous low-intensity conflicts on twoborders; ultimately, the impact on Israeli capabilities is minor.
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US Strategy in the Middle East:
Effects of the 2006 Congressional Elections and the Baker-Hamilton Report
By Prof. Eytan Gilboa
Perspectives Paper No. 23
 The Bush Administration is under enormous pressure to dramatically alter US strategy in the Middle East during the remaining two years of the Bush presidency. This pressure stems from the repeated failures to achieve US goals in Iraq; the role that Iraq played in the Democratic victory in recent Congressional elections; the overwhelming public criticism and opposition to the war; the recommendations of the Baker-Hamilton Study Group on Iraq; and the party politics related to the 2008 Presidential and Congressional elections.
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The Second Lebanon War
By Dr. Avi Kober
Perspectives Paper No. 22
This preliminary assessment of the summer 2006 war in Lebanon discusses five central problems in Israel's management of that war: adherence to the rules of "post-heroic" warfare despite its limitations, playing into the enemy�s hands, operation on the basis of false assumptions and beliefs, violation of basic military principles, and hesitancy on the part of Israel's leadership. The article then examines the outcomes of the war on the battlefield, on the grand-strategic level, in terms of victory, and in longer-term perspective.
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Strategic Follies:
Israel's Mistakes in the Second Lebanese War
By Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Paper No. 21
 Israel's political and military leadership was ill-prepared for the war against the Hizballah in the summer of 2006. A series of strategic mistakes on the part of Israeli leaders denied Israel a military victory and squandered an important opportunity to destroy the majority of Hizballah�s military presence in Southern Lebanon, settle scores and enhance Israel's deterrence. Hopefully, Israeli leadership will be better strategically prepared so as to attain a clearly-defined victory in the next round.
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Proportionality in the Modern Law of War:
An Unenforceable Norm, or the Answer to our Dilemma?
By Dr. Amichai Cohen
Perspectives Paper No. 20
�Proportionality� has become a common term, widely used by human rights organizations, politicians, soldiers and laypersons, but its precise legal meaning is little understood. The goal of this paper is to clarify the parameters of the use of the term and identify the problems confronting attempts to apply it. The final section of the paper mentions various solutions to these problems and alludes to the concept�s application in the context of the present war between Israel and the Hizballah
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Time to Tame Syria
By Prof. Efraim Inbar
Perspectives Paper No. 19
 The current Israeli operation in Lebanon focuses on removing the threat posed to Israel by Hizballah missiles and on destroying Hizballah�s military infrastructure. Israel's use of force is fully justified and proportionate, considering the magnitude of the threat. However, Israel's employment of force is strategically misdirected. Israel should be targeting Damascus. Subduing Syria is the key to resolving the Lebanese crisis, to rolling back Hizballah, and to weakening Iran and its radical Islamist influence in the Middle East
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Confronting the New Nasser in Iran
By Dr. Jonathan Paris
Perspectives Paper No. 18
 The president of Iran presents more than a nuclear threat to the world. His successful defiance of the international community is beginning to galvanize Muslims throughout the world behind a radical vision of puritanical Islam that rejects the liberal democratic model. In responding to this new Nasser, the international community might recall the original Nasser�s ability to turn military defeat into political victory in 1956, as well as Nasser�s rhetorical excesses that led to his humiliating defeat in 1967. Ahmadinejad�s fortunes will have significant implications not only on the future of the region but on the civil war within Islam.
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Centrism in Israeli Politics and the Olmert Government
By Prof. Shmuel Sandler
Perspectives Paper No. 17
This article examines the victory of the centrist Kadima Party in the 2006 Israeli elections, arguing that Kadima's victory suggests that Israel is far less divided than often presumed. Kadima�s victory, argues Sandler, indicates the existence of a strong political center in Israel.
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Defining a New International System in a World Threatened by Jihad: The Danger of a Transatlantic Divide
By Dr. Thomas O. Hecht
Perspectives Paper No. 16
 This article examines the implications of the transatlantic divide, the challenges confronting the international system and the systemic change expected as a result of China�s emergence as a potential super-power.
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The Million Person Gap: A Critical Look at Palestinian Demography
By Dr. Bennett Zimmerman, Roberta Seid and Michael L. Wise
Perspectives Paper No. 15
 A study that subjects Palestinian demography to rigorous analysis shows that the 2004 Palestinian population of the West Bank and Gaza stood at 2.5 million; not the 3.8 million claimed by the Palestinians.
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Iran and the West: Who Needs Whom? A Look at the Consequences of Ahmadinejad�s Economic and Foreign Policies
By Dr. Gil Feiler
Perspectives Paper No. 14
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly asserted that the West needs Iran more than Iran needs the West. This article examines the accuracy of this statement in light of Iran�s current diplomatic and economic predicament.
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The Hamas Takeover Serves Israel's Interests
By Dr. Hillel Frisch
Perspectives Paper No. 13
The decisive victory by Hamas in this week's Palestinian elections, paradoxically, serves Israel's interests. Hamas� win provides Israel and the international community with an opportunity to fashion a tough line against Palestinian Islamic terrorism, and to bring the aid-dependent PA into line.
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